News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The “bad” news and “good” news seem to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable estimation of the model’s parameters, detection of jumps and analysis of jump frequency. The methodology, founded upon the idea of latent variables, is illustrated with simulated data.

The global financial and European debt crises exposed the need for a new approach to fiscal modeling to support decision making analytically. With this purpose, in the following paper we present a macro-fiscal model. By capturing macro-fiscal interlinkages, especially those between fiscal variables and exchange rates, the model enables to analyze various fiscal scenarios with the focus of its impact on debt sustainability and real sector, as well as to conduct forecasting exercises, for small open economies with potentially large share of foreign currency denominated debt in the overall public debt. Finally, the model is applied to Georgian economy to interpret its’ historical data, provide an optimal policy path for future and analyze debt sustainability under several stress scenarios.

The national total expenditure of a country is precipitated on several factors of which revenue generated could be one and very significant. This paper therefore examines the contribution of some selected sources of Nigerian government revenue to total national expenditure. Statistical and econometric techniques used for the data analysis are unit root test, cointegration test, combined estimators’ analysis, the error correction model (ECM) and the feasible generalized linear (FGLS) estimators. Results showed that the variables are non stationary but are stationary at first difference. The long-run relationship of total expenditure on oil revenue, non-oil revenue, federation account and federal retained revenue revealed that the variables are co-integrated and required the use of combined estimators. The effect of non-oil revenue and federal retained revenue is very significant. Investigations on the short-run modeling necessitated the use of FGLS estimators. The effect of ECM and federal retained revenue is very significant. Consequently, other sources of revenue apart from federal retained revenue need to be enhanced and tailored towards improving economic growth and development through national expenditure.

Concrete is the most widely used construction material because of its specialty of being cast into any desired shape. The main requirements of earthquake resistant structures are good ductility and energy absorption capacity. Fiber reinforced concrete possesses high flexural and tensile strength, improved ductility, and high energy absorption over the conventional concrete in sustaining dynamic loads. The aim of this paper is to compare the properties of concrete beams in which three types of fibers are added individually. Steel fibers, polypropylene fibers and hybrid fibers were added to concrete in the weight ratio of four percentages in the preparation of four beam specimens. The fourth specimen did not contain fibers and acted as a control specimen. The dimensions of the beam specimens were 150 × 150 × 700 mm. The reinforced concrete beams of M30 grade concrete were prepared for casting and testing. Various parameters such as load carrying capacity, stiffness degradation, ductility characteristics and energy absorption capacity of FRC beams were compared with that of RC beams. The companion specimens were cast and tested to study strength properties and then the results were compared. All the beams were tested under three point bending under Universal Testing Machine (UTM). The results were evaluated with respect to modulus of elasticity, first crack load, ultimate load, and ultimate deflection. The test result shows that use of hybrid fiber improves the flexural performance of the reinforced concrete beams. The flexural behavior and stiffness of the tested beams were calculated, and compared with respect to their load carrying capacities. Comparison was also made with theoretical calculations in order to determine the load-deflection curves of the tested beams. Results of the experimental programme were compared with theoretical predictions. Based on the results of the experimental programme, it can be concluded that the addition of steel, polypropylene and hybrid fibers by 4% by weight of cement (but 2.14% by volume of cement) had the best effect on the stiffness and energy absorption capacity of the beams.

Currently, a worldwide dynamic rise of interest in using soil as a construction material can be observed. This trend is evident in the rapid rise of the amount of standards that deal with soil techniques. In 2012 the number of standards was larger by one third than five years prior. To create a full standardization of the rammed earth technique it is necessary to take into account the diversity of used soil and stabilizing additives. The proportion of the components, the process of element production and the research methods must also be made uniform. The article describes the results of research on the compressive strength of rammed earth samples that differed from each other with regards to the type of loam used for the mixture and the amount of the stabilizer. The stabilizer used was Portland cement CEM I 42.5R. The research and the analysis of the results were based on foreign publications, the New Zealand standard NZS 4298:1998, the American Standard NMAC14.7.4 and archival Polish Standards from the 1960’s that dealt with earth material.

The paper considers method of determination of solar radiation amount falling on arbitrarily oriented surface of a structure. Provided method allows calculation of influence of structure’s geographical coordinates, spatial orientation of structure’s surface, day of year and time of day on received amount of solar radiation. The method is intended for determination of thermal stresses and deformations of sheet steel structures caused by action of direct solar radiation. Examples show usage of provided method.

These joints are used when the designer and contractor anticipate difficulties during the construction of overlap joints. They were not included in the PN EN 1993‒1‒8 in full scale. Resistance assessment of such joints is presented in accordance with standard rules. The results were compared with the experimental studies carried out at the “Mostostal” Centre; while the former research activities and the legitimacy of the proposed method of assessing the resistance of these joints was confirmed. This is an example of an overlap joint calculation.

In calculating the resistance of welds within the connections between hollow sections in EN 1993‒1‒8, very general information is given without presenting specific calculations. The chief recommendations indicate that the resistance of the welds connecting the wall to the second element should not be less than the resistance of the cross section of the wall. In addition, assessment of the welds’ resistance based on the effective lengths is viable in cases when forces in the braces are smaller than the resistance of the joint, though the detailed method was not specified. The objective of this paper is to present the most up-to-date information about the design of overlap welded joints with a reinforcing rib plate.

The paper describes an experimental behaviour of the basalt fibre reinforced polymer composite by external strengthening to the concrete beams. The BFRP composite is wrapped at the bottom face of R.C beam as one layer, two layers, three layers and four layers. The different characteristics – are studied in – first crack load, ultimate load, tensile and compressive strain, cracks propagation, crack spacing and number of cracks etc. To – investigate, total of five beams size 100×160×1700 mm were cast. One beam is taken as control and others are strengthened with BFRP composite with layers. From this investigation, the first crack load is increased depending on the increment in layers from 6.79% to 47.98%. Similarly, the ultimate load carrying – capacity is increased from 5.66% to 20%. The crack’s spacing is also reduced with an increase in the number of layers.

The paper presents methods of determining the location of cost buffers and corresponding contingency costs in the CPM schedule based on its work breakdown structure. Application of correctly located cost buffers with appropriately established reserve costs is justified by the common overrunning of scheduled costs in construction projects. Interpolated cost buffers (CB) as separate tasks have been combined with relevant summary tasks by the starttostart (SS) relationship, whereas the time of their execution has been dynamically connected with the time of accomplishment of particular summary tasks using the “paste connection” option. Besides cost buffers linked with the group of tasks assigned to summary tasks, a definition of the cost buffer for the entire project (PCB) has been proposed, i.e. as one initial task of the entire project. Contingency costs corresponding to these buffers, depending on the data that the planner has at his disposal, can be determined using different methods, but always depend on the costs of all tasks protected by each buffer. The paper presents an exemplary schedule for a facility and the method of determining locations and cost for buffers CB and PCB, as well as their influence on the course of the curve illustrating the budgeted cost of work scheduled (BCWS). The proposed solution has been adjusted and presented with consideration of the possibilities created by the scheduling software MS Project, though its general assumptions may be implemented with application of other similar specialist tools.

The aim of the study is to compare flexible pavement design lifespans and the main factors which create their values for a standard structure and one with an anti-fatigue course AF at different parameter values of pavement and its load, relevant to their design processes. Depending on the mixture used for the anti-fatigue course or the course thickness, durability improvement of the pavement (compared to the durability of a standard structure) can be obtained by extending the design lifespan of the asphalt base course or by extending the design lifespan of the AF course. On sections with predominantly slow traffic, the lifespan decreases significantly compared to sections with typical vehicle speed – the relative decrease is greater if anti-fatigue course is applied.

Hard bitumens are used in the construction industry primarily in it’s unmodified form, for instance for the production of the so-called traditional roofing felt. Due to the low price of these types of membranes, the use of a popular but expensive modifying agent, SBS copolymer, is not justified economically. Research carried out by the authors has shown that chemical organic compounds belonging to a group of imidazolines may potentially be used as much cheaper bitumen modifier. It was demonstrated that a new type of modifier based on oleic imidazoline, developed by the authors, has a significant impact on improving the physical properties of bitumen. The use of this modifier results in a significant increase in the bitumen plasticity range, both before and after laboratory ageing .In addition, there was a considerable increase of bitumen’s resistance to aging. Its use can help improve the quality and durability of popular waterproofing products manufactured with the use of hard bitumen.

Missing traffic data is an important issue for road administration. Although numerous ways can be found to impute them in foreign literature (inter alia, the most effective method, that is Box-Jenkins models), in Poland, still only proven and simplified methods are applied. The article presents the analyses including an assessment of the completeness of the existing traffic data and works related to the construction of SARIMA model. The study was conducted on the basis of hourly traffic volumes, derived from the continuous traffic counts stations located in the national road network in Poland (Golden River stations) from the years 2005 – 2010. As a result, the proposed model was used to impute the missing data in the form of SARIMA (1.1,1)(0,1,1)₁₆₈. The newly developed model can be used effectively to fill in the missing required days of measurement for estimating AADT by AASHTO method. In other cases, due to its accuracy and laboriousness of the process, it is not recommended.