@ARTICLE{Alsultani_Riyadh_Novel_2026,
 author={Alsultani, Riyadh and Hasan, Raad Falih},
 number={No 68},
 journal={Journal of Water and Land Development},
 pages={1-16},
 howpublished={online},
 year={2026},
 publisher={Polish Academy of Sciences; Institute of Technology and Life Sciences - National Research Institute},
 abstract={This study presents a two-dimensional novel mathematical model to investigate the long-term evolution of sediment transport and meander migration in a low-gradient alluvial reach. The model integrates Saint-Venant shallow water equations and Exner sediment continuity equation with an empirical bank erosion module based on excess shear stress. Historical reach centrelines (2000–2024) from Landsat imagery and advanced spaceborne thermal emission and reflection radiometer digital elevation models (ASTER DEMs) were used to calibrate and validate the model against observed planform changes. Model calibration involved adjustment of hydraulic roughness (n = 0.035–0.045), sediment transport coefficients and erosion thresholds. Validation yielded strong agreement with observed data (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.82, root mean square error (RMSE) = 5.4 m, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.89). The simulations of future scenarios (2025–2100) showed that there are morphological changes that are quantifiable such as the increase in the meander wavelength (12%), sinuosity (9%), and the lateral migration rates up to 3.7 m∙y−1 with intensified flow and reduced sediment supply. Sensitivity analysis confirmed high responsiveness of channel shape to changes in slope, discharge and bank erodibility. Results suggest downstream migration and localised bank retreat are likely under climate and land-use change impacts, with implications for infrastructure planning and river management. The model provides a robust tool for predicting river morphological evolution and supports sustainable decision-making.},
 title={Novel mathematical model for long-term hydrodynamic evolution of sediment transport and its impact on meandering geometry},
 type={Article},
 URL={http://www.czasopisma.pan.pl/Content/138037/2026-01-JWLD-01.pdf},
 doi={10.24425/jwld.2026.156059},
 keywords={hydro-geomorphology, mathematical model, meander migration, river morphodynamics, sediment transport},
}