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Abstract

Precipitation is a component of the hydrological cycle, knowing its spatial distribution is vital for the management of hydrographic basins, the territory and the development of fundamental activities for society. That is why the present study shows the spatial variability of rainfall in Cartagena de Indias city with a network of rain gauges, made up of nine pieces of equipment, separated from each other by 0.9–27 km. After a year of recording (2019), using historical series of data, it was found that the maximum rainfall occurs in the trimester between September and November, with interpolated maps made by the Ordinary Kriging (OK) method it was found that the maximum rainfall is focused on the north, centre and west of the territory, instead, the maximum intensities are presented in the centre and west, the minimums for both variables are presented to the east and south. The 70 and 90% of the rain events have a duration of less than 30 min and 1 h, respectively. Three-parameter exponential function was fitted to the paired correlation distances, and presented correlations lower than 0.8, 0.5 and 0.2 from distances of 1, 3 and 7 km, respectively, in 30 min rain integration. It was also found that with a pluviometric network conformed by at least six pieces of equipment and separated by a 5 km distance from each other in the urban area, a correlation of 0.5 and compliance with the WMO recommendations would be obtained.
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Authors and Affiliations

Javier A. Mouthon-Bello
1
Edgar Quiñones-Bolaños
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jairo E. Ortiz-Corrales
1
ORCID: ORCID
Natalia Mouthon-Barraza
1
Maria D.J. Hernández-Fuentes
1
Andrea C. Caraballo-Meza
1

  1. Universidad de Cartagena, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Consulate Ave 30, No. 48-152, 130014, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
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Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the years 1981–2010. The av-erage annual rainfall was 607 mm. Precipitation in Poland is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The lowest annual precipitation was recorded in the central part of the country, where they equaled 500 mm. The highest annual precipitation totals were determined in the south, equaling 970 mm. The average precipitation in the summer half-year is 382 mm (63% of the annual total). On the basis of data from 53 climate stations, maps were made of the spatial distribution of precipitation for the period of the year and winter and summer half-year. The kriging method was used to map rainfall distribution in Poland. In the case study, cross-validation was used to compare the prediction performances of three periods. Kriging, with exponential type of semivariogram, gave the best performance in the statistical sense. Their application is justices especially in areas where landform is very complex. In accordance with the assumptions, the mean prediction error (ME), mean standardized prediction error (MSE), and root mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSE) values are approximately zero, and root-mean-square prediction error (RMSE) and average standard error (ASE) reach values well below 100.

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Authors and Affiliations

Antoni Grzywna
ORCID: ORCID
Andrzej Bochniak
Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek
ORCID: ORCID
Joanna Krużel
Krzysztof Jóźwiakowski
Andrzej Wałęga
Agnieszka Cupak
ORCID: ORCID
Agnieszka Mazur
Radomir Obroślak
Artur Serafin
ORCID: ORCID

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