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Abstract

Objectives: Relapse is very much associated with the management of disorder during the treatment, but also many other factors could trigger it. The aim of this study was to explore classes and patterns of relapse risk in patients with schizophrenia of Razi Hospital. Methods: Using random sampling techniques, we recruited 300 participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia in Razi hospital of Tehran (Iran) between January and May 2017 in a cross -sectional survey. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to establish a baseline model of risk profiles and to identify the optimal number of latent classes, and we used ordinal regression to identify factors associated with class membership. Results: Three classes of multiple relapse risk were identified. LCA showed that, overall, 52%, 22% and 26% of participants with schizophrenia were divided into class 1, class 2 and class 3, respectively. Compared to members in the lowest -risk class (reference group), the highest -risk class members had higher odds of being the age of disorder onset under 25 (OR = 1.4; CI: 1.42–2.33). Participants with schizophrenia who were unemployed were more likely to categorize in the highest -risk class than members of the low -risk class (OR = 2.5; CI: 1.44–4.1). Also, female patients were more likely to belong to members of the high -risk class than members of the low -risk class (OR = 2.22; CI: 1.74–7.64). Conclusion: These findings emphasize the importance of having targeted prevention programs for all domains of Age of onset, female and unemployed related. So, current study suggested that interventions should focus on these risk factors. Furthermore, Increasing the Job opportunities for participants with schizophrenia is warranted so as to prevent of schizophrenia disorder.
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Authors and Affiliations

Mehdi Noroozi
Neda Alibeigi
Bahram Armoon
Omid Rezaei
Mohammad Sayadnasiri
Somayeh Nejati
Farbod Fadaei
Davood Arab Ghahestany
Bahman Dieji
Elahe Ahounbar
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Abstract

One of the main problem of innovative projects in Russian Federation is the need to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on their financing and development. The impact of this type of shock in the period of globalization is sharply increasing. In order to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on innovative projects we create a model with two stages using the innovate project of production of water purification plants. The first stage of it is the construction of a simple model of financial risk, stipulating the conditions when investors will invest in this firm in the absence of negative shocks, their expectations will depend on their own confidence in continuing investment at the next stages. This model shows a positive result. At the second stage we take into account the impact of the negative exogenous shocks on the project, and try to trace a reaction of companies involved in financing innovative projects. The results of the project were negative. The investor in this case as a rule can stop financing and has the risk of losses. In order to prevent this situation we propose to use a real option for a possible refusal to implement an innovative project in the event that the net present value after one year of financing will be negative or very small. To our opinion it is one of the best ways to reduce financial risks during the implementation of innovative projects for investors.
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Authors and Affiliations

Oksana A. Karpenko
Tatiana K. Blokhina
Elena V. Savenkova
Ghennadiy F. Abramov
Olga V. Rybakova
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Abstract

The paper concerns a risk assessment and management methodology in critical infrastructures. The aim of the paper is to present researches on risk management within the experimentation tool based on the OSCAD software. The researches are focused on interdependent infrastructures where the specific phenomena, like escalating and cascading effects, may occur. The objective of the researches is to acquire knowledge about risk issues within interdependent infrastructures, to assess the usefulness of the OSCAD-based risk manager in this application domain, and to identify directions for further R&D works. The paper contains a short introduction to risk management in critical infrastructures, presents the state of the art, and the context, plan and scenarios of the performed validation experiments. Next, step by step, the validation is performed. It encompasses two collaborating infrastructures (railway, energy). It is shown how a hazardous event impacts the given infrastructure (primary and secondary eects) and the neighbouring infrastructure. In the conclusions the experiments are summarized, the OSCAD software assessed and directions of the future works identified.

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Authors and Affiliations

Andrzej Białas
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Abstract

The introduction of increasingly strict rules related to the processing and storage of animal waste, the growing demand for energy and the creation of sustainable animal husbandry have led to an increased interest in the production of clean energy from animal waste. The production of biogas and its subsequent burning on the farm is among the most promising technologies. One of the possibilities for the utilization of biogas is through the use of small aggregates for the combined production of electricity and heat energy based on an internal combustion engine. Analysis of such facilities that have been put into operation show that alternative technologies using biogas as fuel are better than conventional options, both from an economic and an environmental point of view. In this sense, however, the introduction of such a technology into operation is always associated with a number of risks, since investments in new technologies are influenced by technical and economic uncertainty. When planning and preparing the plan for the construction of such a biogas facility, the investment costs, technical support and profitability of the project are essential. Introducing critical economic and technical parameters to inform the farmer of all possible investments, operational and unforeseen risks will allow him to accept the challenges and choose the best solution for his farm. In this publication, an analysis and assessment of the risk has been carried out based on the characteristics of the technology – the possible consequences of the risk are also presented. A risk matrix related to the specifics of the object and the technology is proposed, with the help of which, the type of risk is identified. Based on an analysis of the obtained results, a motivated proposal for reducing the risk is made.
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Authors and Affiliations

Konstantin Vasilev Kostov
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Manufacturing and Thermal Engineering, Technical University of Sofia, Faculty of Engineering and Pedagogy of Sliven, Bulgaria
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Abstract

The article aims to study the determinants of the energy policy implementation process from

risks and danger perspectives by building the risk management system model. The research methodology

is based on the application of the risk map to the energy policy. Our results confirmed

that the risk map could be applied in the energy industry to identify the risks and to implement the

energy policy risk management system model which will prevent critical uncertainties and risk

structure, identified from the risk map as well as bring the energy industry to the future state by

implementing scenarios and strategies, developed by the World Energy Council. The research limitations

are that the main limits are concerned with the lack of the evaluation results of the energy

policy risks aimed for the system management of the changes which these risks may introduce. No

empirical study has been conducted. The application of the risk map is related in a major part to

the enterprise level with financial and technical purposes of changes. In the research we made an

attempt to develop the managerial recommendations for the regulators on how to make a transitions

of risks to opportunities of introducing and managing changes in the framework of the energy

policy risk management system model. The originality/ value of the paper consists firstly, in the innovativeness

of applying the tool of matrix forecasting to the energy sector; secondly, in providing

a supporting tool to policy-makers and managers decisions.

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Authors and Affiliations

Iryna Nyenno
ORCID: ORCID
Natalia Selivanova
Natalya Korolenko
Vyacheslav Truba
ORCID: ORCID
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Abstract

In this work, we perform an analysis of the characteristics of the one-year and ultimate reserve risk distributions commonly used in actuarial science: duration, first development factor, coefficient of variation, skewness coefficient, skewness-to-CoV ratio, emergence factor, emergence pattern, and risk margin run-off patterns. Our study is based on empirical data for two European markets: the Polish and Slovak markets. We provide benchmarks and ranges for the considered characteristics, as well as analyse the relations between them. We study Solvency II lines of business and compare our coefficients of variation to the Standard Formula reserve risk standard deviations. We investigate more deeply the topic of emergence pattern and risk margin run-off patterns.
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Authors and Affiliations

Marcin Szatkowski
1

  1. Institute of Econometrics, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Poland; Risk Department, STU ERGO Hestia SA
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Abstract

The main goal of the studies was to collect information on the impact of the identified risk factors on the amount of costs incurred in the life cycle of buildings. The own studies were focused especially on residential and non-residential buildings. The studies consisted in obtaining expert opinions on the subject of the research involves in the non-random (arbitrary) selection of a sample of respondents from among specialists corresponding to the industry purpose of the studies and the research material. The research used the expert questionnaire method. The studies were divided into three stages. In the first stage, the identification and division of risk factors in the life cycle of buildings was performed. Then, experts assessed 45 selected risk factors that may affect the amount of costs incurred in the life cycle of buildings. In the last step, the research results were developed in the form of a checklist knowledge base, containing information about the potential impact of the identified risk factors in the life cycle of buildings on the amount of the corresponding components of life cycle costs.
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Authors and Affiliations

Damian Wieczorek
1
ORCID: ORCID
Krzysztof Zima
1
ORCID: ORCID
Edyta Plebankiewicz
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Cracow University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Warszawska St. 24, 31-155 Cracow, Poland
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Abstract

Coastal areas face greater risk in terms of health and the environment. They are the most vulnerable to impacts resulting from climate change. Coastal areas with higher population density also have more environmental problems, such as natural disasters. Environmental health risks from chemicals and microbes continue threatening people living on small islands. Therefore, this study aims to: 1) conduct a chemical risk analysis of heavy metals Pb, Cr(VI), and Ni; 2) analyse the microbial risk posed by drinking water consumed daily by people on small islands. A method used to analyse the chemical risk of heavy metals was the environment health risk assessment (EHRA), whereas to analyse the microbial risk in small islands, the quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was used. The results showed that the concentration of heavy metals in drinking water was <0.0012 mg∙dm–3 for Pb, <0.01 mg∙dm–3 for Cr(VI), and <0.0019 mg∙dm–3 for Ni. The three heavy metals showed worrying results. Assessment and obtained risk quotient were less than one (RQ < 1) in all samples. Meanwhile, the microbial analysis found Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter calcoaceticus, Enterobacter sp ., and Citrobacter sp ., with risk characterised from low to high. Risk management is needed to control environmental health risks posed by heavy metals and the microbiological characteristics of drinking water on the small islands of the Spermonde Archipelago.
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Authors and Affiliations

Agus B. Birawida
1
ORCID: ORCID
Anwar Daud
1
ORCID: ORCID
Erniwati Ibrahim
1
ORCID: ORCID
Healthy Hidayanty
2
ORCID: ORCID
Nurlia Sila
1
ORCID: ORCID
Maming Maming
3
ORCID: ORCID
Muhammad Nur
4
ORCID: ORCID
Ain Khaer
5
ORCID: ORCID
Andi I. Arundhana
6
ORCID: ORCID
Arsunan Arsin
7
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Hasanuddin University, Department of Environmental Health, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  2. Hasanuddin University, Department of Nutrition, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  3. Hasanuddin University, Department of Chemistry, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  4. Hasanuddin University, Department of Mathematics, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
  5. Health Polytechnic, Department of Environmental Health, Jl.Wijaya Kusuma 1 No.2, Makasssar, South Sulawesi, 90222, Indonesia
  6. The University of Sidney, Faculty of Medicine and Health, Science Rd, Camperdown NSW 2050, Australia
  7. Hasanuddin University, Department of Epidemiology, Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan Km 10, Makassar, South Sulawesi, 90245, Indonesia
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Abstract

The article is devoted to the development of technogenic risk management models and formalization of the process of support in making decision in the sphere of industrial safety. The structural, informative and mathematical models, used to process information in the technological risks management, as well as a formal model of the process of support of making decision in achieving an acceptable level of technical risk are presented and analyzed.
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Authors and Affiliations

V. Lyfar
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Abstract

The model is developed for the intellectualized decision-making support system on financing of cyber security means of transport cloud-based computing infrastructures, given the limited financial resources. The model is based on the use of the theory of multistep games tools. The decision, which gives specialists a chance to effectively assess risks in the financing processes of cyber security means, is found. The model differs from the existing approaches in the decision of bilinear multistep quality games with several terminal surfaces. The decision of bilinear multistep quality games with dependent movements is found. On the basis of the decision for a one-step game, founded by application of the domination method and developed for infinite antagonistic games, the conclusion about risks for players is drawn. The results of a simulation experiment within program implementation of the intellectualized decision-making support system in the field of financing of cyber security means of cloudbased computing infrastructures on transport are described. Confirmed during the simulation experiment, the decision assumes accounting a financial component of cyber defense strategy at any ratios of the parameters, describing financing process.

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Authors and Affiliations

Valery Lakhno
Berik Akhmetov
Volodimir Malyukov
Timur Kartbaev
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Abstract

The rapid development of the global economy has led to an increasing demand for resources. The disparity between the supply and demand of resources continues to be prominent and shows a situation of short supply. Resource investment projects with large amounts and long construction periods face many risks due to various unpredictable factors. Cultural, legal, economic and other environments vary between different countries. Therefore, comprehensive risk identification, understanding, evaluation, and analysis are important prerequisites for the success of mineral investment. In this paper, the risk of mineral resources investment in host countries is identified. A risk evaluation index system is established to objectively evaluate the risk environment of the host country. The risk evaluation index system includes four first-level indexes: political and legal risk, social and cultural risk, economic and financial risk, and natural risk. The subjective weight was determined by sending questionnaires to experts and scholars in the industry and conducting data processing. The entropy method was used to determine the objective weight. Finally, the subjective weight and the objective weight were combined to obtain a group of scientific and accurate combined weights. The matter-element theory was introduced into the cloud model and a risk assessment model based on the cloud matter-element theory was constructed with comprehensive consideration of the fuzziness and randomness of risks. Eight countries with relatively rich mineral resources were taken as cases to verify the model application. The research results provide a theoretical basis and decision-making methods for mineral enterprise investment.
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Authors and Affiliations

Jie Hou
1
Guoqing Li
1
Jiahong Ling
1
Lianyun Chen
2
Wei Zhao
3
ORCID: ORCID
Baoli Sheng
3

  1. University of Science and Technology Beijing, China
  2. University of Science and Technology Beijing, China; Shandong Gold Group Co., Ltd., Jinan, China
  3. Sanshandao Gold Mine, Shandong Gold Group Mining (Laizhou) Co., Ltd., Yantai, China
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Abstract

Almost every construction investment should contain elements of risk forecasting, whose validity depends, among other things, on the correct assessment of potential threats. These risks were defined by the Authors as risk factors that were characterized and then grouped on the basis of performed research in the scope of their identification. Due to lack of method of scheduling railway investments on the construction market, including risk assessment, a research effort was undertaken [14-17], the result of which is the proposed method. The article presents the main assumptions of the original method of rail investment planning, which on the one hand, will take into account the impact of potential threats identified previously by the Authors, and, on the other, will allow project managers to refer to the conditions in which the implementation of a specific facility is planned. The assumption was made that the method, relatively easy to implement, supported by an appropriate computational program, will encourage teams planning the implementation of railway undertakings to its application and will improve the reliability of the schedules they develop.

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Authors and Affiliations

J. Kowalski
M. Poloński
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Abstract

Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) technology is a highly complex process connected with high risk and uncertainty due the high variability underground strata, often limited access to specialised equipment, dynamic natural environment, technical disruptions, human factor and changes in economic environment that further complicate the gathering of reliable information and data. This work presents a new risk evaluation model tailored for HDD technology, in which failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) modelling were applied. This paper focuses on 15 human risk factors and 9 equipment risk factors in HDD technology. The proposed approach takes into account not only the probability of the risk factor occurrence, but also its severity and the possibility of detecting faults, which were not clearly separated and analyzed in the previous works. Application of the proposed model shows the relationship between occurrence, severity and detection for the analyzed failures. Moreover, many detection possibilities for the identified failures were presented. The calculated risk priority numbers allowed to rank HDD failures and identify the most critical risks for which one should look for risk treatment possibilities beyond risk cause reduction, such as risk effect reduction, risk transfer, risk elimination or active risk retention.
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Authors and Affiliations

Maria Krechowicz
1
ORCID: ORCID
Wacław Gierulski
1
ORCID: ORCID
Stephen Loneragan
2
Henk Kruse
3

  1. Kielce University of Technology, Poland
  2. HDD Engineering, Australia
  3. Deltares, the Netherlands
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Abstract

It has already been well established that long exposure to low doses of pesticidesis linked to consumer risks. So, this study purposed to investigate the amounts of pesticide residues and potential health risks associated with them. The risk assessment was determined by two methods: 1. Pesticide toxicity index (PTI) depending on the maximum residue limit (MRL) to calculate the hazard quotient (HQ); 2. Health risk assessment (HR) using acceptable daily intake (ADI) and estimated daily intake (EDI) to calculate the health index (HI). Pesticide residues were estimated in 176samples of the most popularly consumed vegetables collected from major retailers and markets in Dakahlia, Egypt (during 2018). There were 111 samples contaminated with pesticide residues (63.1%), of which 29 samples (16.48%) were higher than the maximum residue limits (MRL).Residues of 23 compounds were found in the analyzed samples, of which chlorpyrifos was the most frequentin 33 samples (18.75%);while cypermethrin was the lowest (detected in one sample). According to WHO toxicity classification, 12 of the detected pesticides were moderately hazardous (class II), seven pesticides belonged to class III (slightly hazardous), three compounds were found in class U (unlikely to pose an acute hazard with normal use), while carbofuran is a highly toxic compound (class Ib). Also, the obtained data revealed that, the HI’s for the individual pesticides ranged from 0.0018 to 64.0% of ADI indicates no risk of adverse effects following exposure to the individual pesticides. The cumulative exposure amounts (PTI values) ranged from 1.58 in snake cucumber to 128.44 in potato tubers, indicating that, the combined risk index of pesticide residues was a significant health risk for consumers according to the individual risk index.It can be concluded that there is a need for strict regulation and regular monitoring of pesticide residues in foodstuff for consumers’ health protection.
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Authors and Affiliations

Shehata E.M. Shalaby
1
ORCID: ORCID
Gehan Y. Abdou
1
Ibrahim M. El-Metwally
2
Gomaa M.A. Abou-elella
1

  1. Pests and Plant Protection Department, National Research Centre, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt
  2. Botany Department, National Research Centre, Dokki, Cairo, Egypt
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Abstract

The main objective of the article is to present quantified and measurable risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance of inspected and monitored 48 commercial construction projects and their feasibility to be carried out. Original technical, financial and organisational feasibility studies in compliance with a rigorous Bank Investment Supervision requirements have been executed by the author in the period of 2005–2018. Methodology of construction project appraisal for financing and execution professional preparation have been laid out – technical documentation, arrangements, realisation. Analysis and assessment of Bank Investment Supervision consisted of project execution plan PEP, geotechnical and environmental conditions, permit design, agreements and decision impacts of local authorities, engineering contract for construction works, project insurance and performance bonds, schedule of execution tasks and their costs, payment plan, investment budget and project economical effectiveness, scope of monthly construction works execution assessed by Earned Value Method approach and handover procedure of construction project. An attempt was made to express numerically the relationship between risks impacts and their level of likelihood. Also, a method of associating the influence of projects risks impacts on the extent of the likelihood of project risk occurrence which makes possible to determine the direction and the strength of this relationship was presented. Finally, risks likelihood appearance, impact and significance variability of commercial construction projects within last two years of booming investment industry have been determined.

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Authors and Affiliations

J. Konior
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Abstract

The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.

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Authors and Affiliations

Jakub Kaliński
Józef Paska
Karol Pawlak
Paweł Terlikowski
Dawid Urbanek
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Abstract

Environmental risk assessment is one of the key tools in environmental engineering. This risk assessment can be qualitative or quantitative and it is based on preliminary studies i.e., baseline study for waste disposal sites. Even though the literature exists on baseline study in general, still there is a lack of guidance regarding development of a site-specific baseline study model for a waste disposal site. This study has two-fold aim, firstly, how to develop site-specific baseline study model for a selected dumping site, and secondly, how this site-specific baseline study can support the environmental engineering via mathematical risk estimation. Mahmood Booti Open Dumping Site (MBODS) is selected to demonstrate the development and application of site-specific baseline study model. This is followed by building a framework that shows how the output of the baseline study can lead to environmental engineering via mathematical risk estimation. The paper provides a mechanism of how to construct a bespoke baseline-study model that is readily useable, avoiding procurement of expensive computer software and yet smoothly connecting with the follow-on stages of the risk assessment. The work presented in this paper can be reproduced repeatedly to create site-specific baseline study models for risk assessment of other waste disposal sites in a cost-effective, consistent and cohesive manner.
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Authors and Affiliations

Asifa Alam
1
Adeel Mahmood
2
M. Nawaz Chaudhry
3
Sajid Rashid Ahmad
1
Noor Ul Safa
2
Huda Ahmed Alghamdi
4
Heba Waheeb Alhamdi
4
Rizwan Ullah
5

  1. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of the Punjab Lahore, Pakistan
  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, GC Women University Sialkot, Pakistan
  3. Lahore Schools of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan
  4. Department of Biology, College of Sciences, King Khalid University, Abha 61413, Saudi Arabia
  5. Department of Zoology, Mirpur University of Science of Technology (MUST), Mirpur Azad Kashmir, Pakistan
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Abstract

Complex construction projects require appropriate planning that allows for time and cost optimization, maximization of the use of available resources and appropriate investment control. Scheduling is a complicated process, due to the uncertainties and risks associated with construction works, the paper describes the development of the scheduling method traditionally used in Poland, based on data from KNR catalogs, by using the RiskyProject Professional program. In the RiskyProject Professional program, the risk and uncertainty with reference to a specific construction project were modeled, and the calculation results were compared with the real time of the project implementation. The conclusions from the work carried out confirm that the SRA (Schedule Risk Analysis) analysis of the base schedule allows for a more faithful representation of the actual conditions of a construction project. The probability of investment realization generated on the basis of the SRA analysis may be assumed at the level of 75÷90%.
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Authors and Affiliations

Paulina Kostrzewa-Demczuk
1
ORCID: ORCID
Magdalena Rogalska
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Kielce University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Al. Tysiąclecia Państwa Polskiego 7, 25-314 Kielce, Poland
  2. Lublin University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nadbystrzycka St. 40, 20-618 Lublin, Poland
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Abstract

Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) is a very complex technology. Although the installation of pipelines by means of this technology is often successful, examples of unsuccessful projects are also known. Due to the complexity of the technology, with the interaction of multiple processes, risks related to uncertainties in these processes play important role. These risks are related to the variability of underground strata, changing natural environment, changes in economic environment, as well as limitations of the equipment, technical disruptions and human factors. This paper describes the risk evaluation results of the FMEA and a Pareto– Lorenz analysis for 14 external risk factors (8 natural or environmental risk factors as well as 6 economic risk factors) in HDD technology. In the proposed approach not only the probability of the external risk factor occurrence was considered, but also its consequences and the ability to detect faults, which were not plainly separated and taken into account in the literature so far. Such an approach has shown the relationship between occurrence, severity and detection for the analysed external failures. Moreover, 40 detection possibilities for the external risks in HDD technology were identified. The calculated risk priority numbers enabled ranking HDD external failures and identified the most critical risks for which the suggested detection options were unsatisfactory and insufficient, and therefore other types of risk response actions need to be explored.
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Authors and Affiliations

Maria Krechowicz
1
ORCID: ORCID
Wacław Gierulski
1
ORCID: ORCID
Stephen Loneragan
2
Henk Kruse
3

  1. Kielce University of Technology, Faculty of Management and Computer Modelling, Poland
  2. HDD Engineering, Australia
  3. Deltares, the Netherlands
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Abstract

The aim of the paper is to point out that the Monte Carlo simulation is an easy and flexible approach when it comes to forecasting risk of an asset portfolio. The case study presented in the paper illustrates the problem of forecasting risk arising from a portfolio of receivables denominated in different foreign currencies. Such a problem seems to be close to the real issue for enterprises offering products or services on several foreign markets. The changes in exchange rates are usually not normally distributed and, moreover, they are always interdependent. As shown in the paper, the Monte Carlo simulation allows for forecasting market risk under such circumstances.

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Authors and Affiliations

Jan Kaczmarzyk
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Abstract

Earth Pressure Balanced shields are currently the most utilized tunnelling machines throughout around the world. The possibility of using conditioning agents that change the mechanical and hydraulic behaviour of a soil, changing it into a plastic paste and thus permitting soil pressure applications at the tunnel face, is the key point to explain the increasing utilization of this technology. Despite its great importance, not much laboratory researches can be registered on soil conditioning, particularly for cohesionless soils. The conditioning criterion is usually defined on the basis of a trial-and-error procedure developed directly at the job sites. A test that is able to simulate the extraction of soil from the bulk chamber with the screw conveyor inclined upwards, as in real machines, can offer a quantitative indication of the conditioned soil behavior for EPB use. The characteristics of the device and the results obtained on many different types of soil are discussed in order to point out the great importance and quality of results that can be achieved using the proposed test device.

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Authors and Affiliations

Luca Borio
Daniele Peila
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Abstract

The objective of this work was to generate a series of equations to describe the voltinism of Lobesia botrana in the quarantine area of the main winemaking area of Argentina, Mendoza. To do this we considered an average climate scenario and extrapolated these equations to other winegrowing areas at risk of being invaded. A grid of 4 km2 was used to generate statistics on L. botrana captures and the mean temperature accumulation for the pixel. Four sets of logistic regression were constructed using the percentage of accumulated trap catches/grid/week and the degree-day accumulation above 7°C, from 1st July. By means of a habitat model, an extrapolation of the phenological model generated to other Argentine winemaking areas was evaluated. According to our results, it can be expected that 50% of male adult emergence for the first flight occurs at 248.79 ± 4 degree-days (DD), in the second flight at 860.18 ± 4.1 DD, while in the third and the fourth flights, 1671.34 ± 5.8 DD and 2335.64 ± 4.3 DD, respectively. Subsequent climatic comparison determined that climatic conditions of uncolonized areas of Cuyo Region have a similar suitability index to the quarantine area used to adjust the phenological model. The upper valley of Río Negro and Neuquén are environmentally similar. Valleys of the northwestern region of Argentina showed lower average suitability index and greater variability among SI estimated by the algorithm considered. The combination of two models for the estimation of adult emergence time and potential distribution, can provide greater certainties in decision-making and risk assessment of invasive species.

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Authors and Affiliations

Guillermo Eugenio Heit
Walter Fabián Sione
Pablo Gilberto Aceñolaza
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Abstract

This study focuses on mapping the groundwater’s vulnerability to pollution in the region of Ouargla, located in the North-East of the northern Sahara, exposed to potential risks of alteration. By applying the methods (GOD, DRASTIC, and SINTACS), coupled with a Geographic Information System (GIS), we were able to identify a medium to high vulnerability trend. In light of the results recorded, the DRASTIC and SINTACS methods prove to be more suitable for our study region. This makes it possible to highlight the recharge zones and land use as being the most vulnerable in the territory studied. The GOD method presents a strong vulnerability trend over 77.02% of the study area. Such a result is directly related to the depth of the water table. It can therefore be argued that this method is far from being representative of the reality on the ground because of these very heterogeneous characteristics.
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Authors and Affiliations

Rabia Slimani
1
Messaouda Charikh
1 2
Mohammad Aljaradin
3
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Laboratory of Biogeochemistry of desert environments, Faculty of Natural and Life Sciences, Kasdi Marbah University, Ouargla, Algeria
  2. Ouargla Higher Normal School, Algeria
  3. School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, UAE

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