This article, as far as possible based on the available literature, empirical measurements, and data from mesoscale models describes and compares expected wind conditions within the Baltic Sea area. This article refers to aspects related to the design and assessment of wind farm wind resources, based on the author’s previous experience related to onshore wind energy. The consecutive chapters of this publication are going to describe the present state and the presumptions relating to the development of wind energy within the Baltic Sea area. Subsequently, the potential of the sea was assessed using mesoscale models and empirical data from the Fino 2 mast that is located approximately 200 kilometers away from the majority of areas indicated in the Polish marine spatial development plan draft of Poland for offshore wind farm development (Maritime Office in Gdynia 2018). In the chapter describing mesoscale models, the author focused his attention on the GEOS5.12.4 model as the source of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application 2 data, also known as MERRA2 (Administration National Aeronautics and Space Agency, 28), which, starting from February 2016, replaced MERRA data (Thogersen et al. 2016) and have gained a wide scope of applications in the assessment of pre-investment and operational productivity due to a remarkable level of correlation with in-situ data. Model-specific data has been obtained for eight locations, which largely overlap with the locations of the currently existing offshore wind farms within the Baltic Sea area. A significant part of this publication is going to be devoted to the description of the previously mentioned Fino 2 mast and to the analysis of data recorded until the end of 2014 by using the said mast (Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency 2018). The analysis has been carried out by means using scripts made in the VBA programming language, making it easier to work with large chunks of data. Measurements from the Fino 2 mast, together with long-term mesoscale model-specific measurements can be used, to some extent, for the preliminary assessment of wind farm energy yield in the areas designated for the development of renewable energy in the Polish exclusive maritime economic zone (Maritime Office in Gdynia 2018). In the final part of this article, pieces of information on the forecasted Baltic Sea wind conditions, especially within the exclusive economic zone of Poland, are going to be summarized. A major focus is going to be put on the differences between offshore and onshore wind energy sources, as well as on further aspects, which should be examined in order to optimize the offshore wind power development.

Offshore wind power is a relatively new sector of the economy with a tremendous potential for development. Its main advantage is foreseeable production and a high capacity factor, estimated at 50% (with prospects to increase to 60%), which makes it the most efficient energy source of all renewable energy technologies. In the Baltic Sea Region, Poland has the largest potential for the development of offshore wind energy. This has been reflected in plans by investors interested in offshore investments within the Polish marine areas. European energy and climate strategies, which define principles and objectives for the transformation of the European energy sector in line with the principle of sustainable development, underline the importance of offshore wind in the effort to achieve climate neutrality of the EU economy and contribute to energy security in Europe. Decision-makers in Poland endeavor to create conditions favorable to the development of the offshore wind sector. The article presents European and Polish conditions for the development of the offshore wind energy. To assess threats and opportunities for the development of the technology in Poland, the article examines whether the offshore wind potential has been included in strategic policy papers related to the development of the Polish energy sector, as well as how the state intends to support the development of the technology. A particular emphasis has been put on the latest draft of the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 due to the crucial role of the document, since it sets directions for the development of the Polish energy sector for the next 20 years.