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Abstract

Mineral markets, in spite of many common features with other goods markets, are distinctive. Their functioning sometimes deviates from the rules of the free market. This feature results from the specificity of acquiring the good being an object of trade. In general, changes in the supply of strategic raw materials are indicated earlier (characterized by a lengthy investment cycle from deposit reconnaissance to mining development), develop slowly, andare inelastic. Demand for common mineral raw materials often has a clear and economic character. However, mineral markets as well as markets of other goods have a common feature - the fact that both are a place where an incessant game is being played. In general, two types of strategic behaviours are distinguished: competition or cooperation. This paper recalls an existing model known as the oil market game. Based on a three-entity market of aggregate producers, an attempt has been made to model entrepreneurs' behaviour. The analysis applies n-person game theory. Game theory enables the evaluation of diverse potential coalitions forming. Possible strategies of activity coming from the prospect of cooperation (or its omission) are presented. Expected payoffs are estimated for possible alliances. Proposals for the division of the payoffs among the participants forming the coalition are also suggested.

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Authors and Affiliations

Mariusz Krzak
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Abstract

Mineral-resource mining is a pillar of many state economies and, in many cases, it determines the welfare of the society. The mining of mineral resources provides the market with the raw materials that are traded and drives the economic and social development of countries, although it can also be a source of tensions and crises (e.g. the “curse of wealth”, “Dutch disease”). The trade of raw materials is conducted by exchanges, bilateral deals and other forms of transactions, and is regulated by trade regulations and contract agreements, and in most cases, constitutes a source of income for exporters. In this paper, the use of game-theory modelling for creating the selling price of mineral products on the basis of Polish export quotas for refined copper raw materials is proposed. Using a characteristic function created on the basis of reported export values, possible cooperation arrangements are defined and solutions are calculated for an n-person game of hypothetical coalitions of the major (in terms of volume) recipients of refined Polish copper, i.e. Germany, Italy and France. Alternative markets and possible supplies of cheaper raw material are excluded from the analyses, while the price spread between the rates paid by the buyers is taken into consideration. Among the many possibilities, the game core, the Shapley imputation and the Gately point are arbitrarily adopted as permissible solutions to the defined system. The obtained results are used for a speculative analysis relating to the possibility of renegotiating prices between the producer and recipients of the raw material. Marginal contributions resulting from Shapley’s solution are taken into account as is the power of individual trading-participant coalitions. The paper demonstrates that the recognition and adoption of solutions based on the n-personnel game model as impartial would require the redefinition of contracts and the rates paid for the raw material.
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Authors and Affiliations

Mariusz Krzak
1

  1. AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland

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