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Number of results: 6
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Abstract

Recent studies have shown that announcements of information about the
state of the US economy have had a significant impact on European stock
markets. However, the importance of information about the US economy may
vary in time. In order to analyze this issue, we examine the impact of
announcements of unexpected US macroeconomic news on the prices of
selected stocks listed on the Vienna Stocks Exchange. On the basis of
the 5-minute returns of 13 stocks we examine how the strength and the
significance of the reactions of investors to unexpected macroeconomic
news from the US has changed over the last 15 years. Event study
methodology allows us to describe precisely such reactions in the first
minutes after news announcements.
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Authors and Affiliations

Tomasz Wójtowicz
1
Henryk Gurgul
1
Christoph Mitterer
2

  1. Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics, Faculty of Management, AGH University of Science and Technology, Cracow, Poland
  2. Capital Solutions Advisory GmbH, Graz, Austria
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Abstract

The work contains discussions and simulation analyses of the expectation formation processes, taking account of the data revisions. In particular, it contains results of simulations examining statistical properties of the rationality tests and extrapolation processes, with particular focus on their behaviour in the case of short samples and data with measurement errors. The conclusions indicate that the rationality test based on the optimal regression and the proposed adaptive and accelerating tests are the most efficient and flexible. The tests showcasing best properties have been applied to a new set of macroeconomic forecasts for Poland. The results show that there are no grounds for rejecting the hypothesis on the rationality of forecasts derived from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development; however, this property was rejected for the European Commission. What is more, the comparative analysis indicates that only the national institution (NBP) may potentially aim the final readings of the macroeconomic data as the forecasting target. Finally, it transpires that the extrapolative models, albeit simple and intuitively interpreted, generally fail to correctly explain the forecast formation processes regarding the Polish economy.
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Authors and Affiliations

Paulina Ziembińska
1

  1. University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
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Abstract

The structural system of a multiple strip-shaped pillar-roof is common in underground mine exploitation, and research on its mechanics and micro/macroeconomics is meaningful for utilizing strip-shaped pillar resources. A general model of the structural system of a multiple strip-shaped pillar-roof was established, the deformation mechanism of the model was analysed by material mechanics, and the deflection curve equations of the model were obtained. Based on the stress strain constitutive relation of the strip pillar and cusp catastrophe theory, the nonlinear dynamic instability mechanism of the structural system of a multiple strip-shaped pillar-roof was analysed, and the expressions of the pillar width for maintaining the stability of different types of structural systems were derived. The benefits of different structural systems were calculated using micro/macroeconomic theory, the type of the structural system was determined, and different recovery schemes were obtained. Theoretical application research was applied to a large manganese mine, and the results demonstrate that no pillar recovery was needed in 2016, a 9-m wide artificial pillar could be built to replace a pillar in 2017, and the construction of 14-m wide artificial pillars can be conducted in 2018.

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Authors and Affiliations

Qingfa Chen
Shiwei Wu
Fuyu Zhao
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Abstract

The latest global trends have led to significant changes in the nature of the world’s economic development. This impact has been particularly strong within the energy sector, forcing many countries to change their approaches to energy management. It is consequently relevant to consider this industry’s current state worldwide. In this research, we have examined the current situation of Australia’s energy sector as well as its prospects for development. In this way, the research focuses on assessing the country’s investment climate in the sector and the potential for further changes within it. The methods used in the study include analysis, modeling, forecasting, induction and deduction. Within the research, the impact that global trends, which are currently representative of the global energy market, have had on the development of this industry in Australia are assessed. Additionally, the inner specifics of the changes within the sector are described and investigated. In particular, the Australian energy sector development strategy is briefly described and trends in renewable and conventional energy production are assessed. The authors also describe the country’s prospects with regard to the current international energy market situation and the possible risks. This publication creates a new understanding in the energy sector, particularly in Australia, and its renewable and conventional components. Additionally, new data is being generated as part of the country’s economic research.
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Authors and Affiliations

Mushfig Guliyev
1
ORCID: ORCID
Samira Rustamova
1
ORCID: ORCID
Vafa Makhmudova
1
ORCID: ORCID
Tarlan Azizov
1
ORCID: ORCID
Orkhan Huseynli
2
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Azerbaijan
  2. The Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan
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Abstract

The world economy is constantly faced with crises that cause a significant negative impact. Each crisis poses new challenges to the economy and, on the one hand, inhibits economic growth, and on the other hand, can become a powerful stimulus for the development and rethinking of fundamental approaches to its construction. Conducting an analysis and establishing relationships between the economic situation and the state of the energy sector make it possible not only to predict the future but also to develop specific steps to prevent crises or reduce their negative impact. At the same time, establishing and evaluating the relationship between key economic and energy indicators, the main one of which is definitely the energy intensity of GDP, will provide an opportunity to understand how improving energy security will affect the economic situation in the country. The generalization of Ukraine’s experience in rebuilding and recovering the economy after the biggest crisis creates a basis for further research in the field of energy management, crisis management, economics, and the construction of investment policy. The reconstruction of Ukraine after the war has the potential to become the most significant stimulus for development and economic growth. During the crisis, it is very important to pay attention to the country’s energy security. In particular, it is necessary to ensure the diversification of energy resources, taking into account their rising cost. Energy markets are currently experiencing extreme volatility caused by geopolitical tensions, which requires additional attention in the development and implementation of strategic guidelines for sustainable economic recovery in Ukraine.
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Authors and Affiliations

Musa Khan
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Economics & Banking, International Islamic University Chittagong, Bangladesh
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Abstract

This paper investigates the relative importance of cost, demand, financialand monetary shocks in driving real exchange rates in four CEE countries over2000–2018. A two-country New Keynesian open economy model is used as atheoretical framework. In the empirical part, a Bayesian SVAR model withMarkov switching heteroscedasticity is employed. The structural shocks areidentified on the basis of volatility changes and named with reference to the signrestrictions derived from the economic model. Main findings are fourfold. First,real and financial shocks have similar contributions to real exchange variability,whereas that of monetary shocks is small. Second, financial shocks amplifyexchange rate fluctuations stemming from real shocks. Third, even though theexchange rate gaps change over time, they remain quite similar across CEEcountries except for Slovakia. Fourth, Slovakia introduced the euro at the timeof a relatively large real overvaluation, which subsided after a lengthy adjustmentprocess.

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Authors and Affiliations

Marek A. Dąbrowski
Łukasz Kwiatkowski
Justyna Wróblewska

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