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Abstract

The local aspect of aging is often ignored. However, municipalities, in particular cities will be affected by the consequences of population aging, in particular a decrease in tax revenues and an increase of expenditures on public goods demanded by the elderly. In this paper we use a static general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of aging on city’s finances. We show that an increase in the number of pensioners will raise the cost of public goods. However, an increase in the number of working elderly can alleviate the situation.

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Authors and Affiliations

Aleksandra Wąsowicz
Grzegorz Kula
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Abstract

The global financial and European debt crises exposed the need for a new approach to fiscal modeling to support decision making analytically. With this purpose, in the following paper we present a macro-fiscal model. By capturing macro-fiscal interlinkages, especially those between fiscal variables and exchange rates, the model enables to analyze various fiscal scenarios with the focus of its impact on debt sustainability and real sector, as well as to conduct forecasting exercises, for small open economies with potentially large share of foreign currency denominated debt in the overall public debt. Finally, the model is applied to Georgian economy to interpret its’ historical data, provide an optimal policy path for future and analyze debt sustainability under several stress scenarios.

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Authors and Affiliations

Shalva Mkhatrishvili
Zviad Zedginidze
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Abstract

This paper investigates the implications of the size of budget deficit in the open economy under perfect mobility of capital. For that purpose we construct a general equilibrium model with consumers maximizing the discounted utility of consumption, and firms maximizing profits. Government sets the size of the deficit relative to GDP and controls the structure of public debt. Using standard methods of optimal control theory we solve the model, i.e. we find explicit formulas for all trajectories and the level of welfare. Finally, we show that the higher the deficit-to-GDP ratio, the lower the welfare of consumers. Similarly, welfare increases with the share of foreign creditors in public debt.

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Authors and Affiliations

Michał Konopczyński
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Abstract

In this paper we develop an open-economy endogenous growth model to examine the influence of fiscal policy on the economy in the long run. We allow for public deficit and 5 types of taxes. One of the novel features is separate treatment of interest rates on public and private debt, both of which are linear functions of appropriate debt-to-GDP ratios. Two extreme situations are analyzed: a model of “decentralized economy”, where economic agents do not take into account any externalities, and a model of “benevolent social planner”. We derive the rules of optimal fiscal policy that induce economic agents to internalize all externalities. Theoretical results are illustrated with an empirical analysis for Poland. The optimal values of several fiscal policy instruments for Poland are calculated.

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Authors and Affiliations

Michał Konopczyński
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Abstract

This paper investigates the linkages between economic growth and fiscal policy under perfect capital mobility. The model incorporates wide range of fiscal policy instruments: the budget deficit, the structure of public debt, public expenditures on education, public consumption, and four tax rates. We prove that two tax rates - on consumption and interest on government bonds held by domestic lenders - are neutral for economic growth: both for the balanced growth path (BGP), and for transitory dynamics. All other parameters of fiscal policy are not neutral. Theoretical results are illustrated with an empirical analysis for Poland based on post-global financial crisis data for the Polish economy (2009-2018). Numerical simulations show that if fiscal policy remains unchanged, Polish economy will converge to the BGP with GDP growing at 2.3%. The best way to accelerate growth is to increase public investment in education. The other budgetary policy instruments are less effective in shaping economic growth.
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Authors and Affiliations

Michał Konopczyński
1

  1. Poznań University of Economics, Poland

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