This paper presents some new results on exogeneity in models with latent variables. The concept of exogeneity is extended to the class of models with latent variables, in which a subset of parameters and latent variables is of interest. Exogeneity is discussed from the Bayesian point of view. We propose sufficient weak and strong exogeneity conditions in the vector error correction model (VECM) with stochastic volatility (SV) disturbances. Finally, an empirical illustration based on the VECM-SV model for the daily growth rates of two main official Polish exchange rates: USD/PLN and EUR/PLN, as well as EUR/USD from the international Forex market is presented. The exogeneity of the EUR/USD rate is examined. The strong exogeneity hypothesis of the EUR/USD rate is not rejected by the data.

The article discusses the evolution of Marian Smoluchowski’s reasoning in his research on causality and understanding the essence of chance. Initially, Smoluchowski focused on the epistemic study of causality, looking for evidence supporting the kinetic-molecular theory. In proving the causes of Brownian motion, he used the concepts of physical causality. The fundamental change in Polish physicist's perception of causality was the understanding of the position of chance on the cause-effect line. Introducing mathematical relations into his considerations, he analyzed the aspect of the occurrence of the effect. The chance suitable for calculating probability was distinguished from the chance in a broader sense by the essential regularity of the frequent recurrence of the phenomenon, regardless of the knowledge of the cause. Smoluchowski's merit was the distinction between the philosophical and physical understanding of causality, chance and probability theory. Shifting the considerations on the nature of chance to the ontological plane moved the study of chance into the area of science, thus leading to the practical application of probability theory in physics.

In the article I present and criticize the view of classical compatibilism on freedom, i.e. the view according to which free subjects and free actions can exist in the world ruled by universal, exceptionless causality. I claim that compatibilism does not solve the problem of freedom and determinism, but avoids and disregards it. Compatibilism pretends to accomplish the task by playing with semantic tricks that create a misleading impression of ‛compatibility’.

The integration of chaos theory and history has been an issue ofmany scientific discussions, but failed to produce any results. Author reexamines the discussions, mathematical features of the theory and claims that proposed ways of integration couldn't have been used practically. Author asks if such integration is possible and i fit can have any intrinsic value for advancement of historical knowledge. Proposed solution is to use chaos theory as a tool, which enables historians to analyze causal relations in the past.

In the paper I try to reconstruct the main theoretical assumptions underlying Paul Veyne’s vision of the ancient world that are to be found in his book L’empire gréco-romain. First of all, recalling the opposition between two ways of making the past intelligible: “explication” versus “explicitation”, I show how the French historian uses that second type of historical analyse to reveal some ancient phenomena (i.e. “democracy”, “imperialism”, “soul”, “faith”) in their original and singular forms. Then, I pass to the question of causality and genesis in history. It seems that in Veyne’s book we can distinguish three different “models” of becoming: 1) “time of a project”, 2) “epigenesis” and 3) “discourse effectiveness”. All these fi ndings lead me to the conclusion that Veyne’s writing of history is essentially “essayistic”.

The paper depicts the relations between historian person and history cognition, especially the influence of his mind inclinations to cognitive biases on narrative.

The article presents some possibilities and limitations of the general psychological knowledge utilization in the causal explanation in history based on the probabilistic model.

High movements of asset prices constitute intrinsic elements of financial crises. There is a common agreement that extreme events are responsible for that. Making inference about the risk spillover and its effect on markets one should use such methods and tools that can fit properly for catastrophic events. In the paper Extreme Value Theory (EVT) invented particularly for modelling extreme events was used. The purpose of the paper is to model risky assets using EVT and to analyse the transfer of risk across the financial markets all over the world using the Granger causality in risk test. The concept of testing in causality in risk was extended to Spectral Risk Measure i.e., respective hypotheses were constructed and checked by simulation. The attention is concentrated on the Chinese financial processes and their relations with those in the rest of the globe. The original idea of the Granger causality in risk assumes usage of Value at Risk as a risk measure. We extended the scope of application of the test to Expected Shortfall and Spectral Risk Measure. The empirical results exhibit very interesting dependencies.

In the first part of the article, I reconstruct the philosophical thoughts of Czesław Białobrzeski, a Polish philosophizing physicist. In the second part, I outline his biography and contribution to the development of physics. Philosophical reflections of Białobrzeski formed based on the leading issues in physics of the late 19th and mainly 20th century. He carried out his considerations in close connection to his scientific practice. The activity of the Polish scientist takes place in the formation and development period of quantum mechanics. Białobrzeski, similarly to many other physicists of the time, was well aware of the necessity of coherent explanation of the fundamentally new phenomena of the quantum mechanics. His take on the subject is rather original—he referred to the classical, philosophical theory of categories and proposed its ontological interpretation.

The mining sector played an important role in the economic growth of the developed countries with rich natural resources in the past, and in recent years, it is important for the economic growth of developing countries. Also, it is generally supported by the incentives due to the fact that mining sector causes other related sectors to grow. Incentives have been the most important economic policy instrument imposed by governments to boost economic growth in developed and developing countries. Incentives or supports given by Turkish state in order to increase the mining investments can be analyzed under two categories; incentives or supports based on the Turkish Mining Law, incentives or supports provided under the Investment Incentive Program. The effect of investment incentives applied to the mining sector in Turkey between the years of 2001 and 2017 on mining production index (MPI) and also the indirect effect of these on gross domestic product (GDP) are investigated by using Granger Causality Test and regression analysis. In this study, the data belonging to the number of investment incentive certificates received by firms operating in Mining Sector and the amount of total fixed investment were used. According to the findings obtained from this study, it has been determined that encouraging the fixed investments of the firms operating in the Mining Sector with incentives has a significant and positive impact on MPI and GDP in a short period of 1 year. H owever, the incentives applied to the mining sector did not increase the production index of the mine in parallel with the increase in the GDP.

The author tries to explain what consequences for social morality ensue from the assumption that moral attitudes are expressed not only in words but also in reactive attitudes. P.F. Strawson assumes that acts of resentment can alter attitudes of those who have triggered them by their behavior. On the other hand, we are ready to control our outbursts of short temper and anger to a certain degree if we take into account agents’ motives and their limited ability to exercise self-control. Moreover, it seems that reactive attitudes – though less precise than verbal rebuke – are more frank and straightforward. Nevertheless, why must I, when I hear a mediocre academic researcher brag over and over again about his apparently essential contribution to philosophy, curb my moral assessment of his self-importance to the level of my irritation? Why should I feel constrained to keep my moral disgust in tune with my impatience mixed with amusement? Why shouldn’t I continue to believe that I can be an amiable character and a rigorous moral person at the same time?

The term “cause” is ubiquitous in life and science. It is surprising how, generally speaking, the existing all-purpose dictionaries, and even «professional» ones, are clumsy in their attempts to define “cause” and its derivative terms. We urgently need a more satisfactory definition of these words, along the following lines: an acting of object x on object y is the cause of the change in object y, when at the same time object x acts on object y, object y changes, and if something of the type of object x acts on an object of the type of object y, then object y changes. When expanding the proposed definition, I consider, among others: (a) traditional counterarguments aimed at the existence of cause-effect relation, (b) the question of necessity as a component of the notion of causality, (c) the notion of acting on something and the circumstances of its occurrence, (d) the essence of change, and (e) the causality principle. In addition, I sketch the relation of the reconstructed notion of causality to the notions of motivation, perpetration, and the act of creation (in arts and in Catholicism).

The Author discusses a book "The Robin G. Collingood s philosophy of History" by Witold M. Nowak. He considers it as well done monographic picture of Collingwood's thinking. Nowak regards the philosophy of history of famous English thinker as a hermeneutical philosophy rather than philosophy of history itself including such basic ideas essential for the understanding of his philosophy like theory ofquestioning and answering, the method of the re-enactment, the concept of the absolute conditions. The book written by Nowak provides also to the Polish readers many precious biographical data and an interesting analysis of the cultural context ofColingwoodian thinking. It pays special attention to the late period of his work and its meaning.

The article aims to show that the criticism of the psychophysiological theory of cognition formulated by Roman Ingarden in the work U podstaw teorii poznania (‘The Groundwork of Epistemology’) is in some aspects still sound. The psychophysiological theory of cognition is the forerunner of modern naturalized epistemology. Thus the author of this article undertakes to show that Ingarden’s critique applies to this modern epistemology. The paper focuses on an issue that is discussed in both theories, i.e. the problem of causal generation of cognition. Moreover, it investigates two allegations that Ingarden has formulated. The first concerns the causal explanations of the possibility of knowledge, namely the objection of a vicious circle in theory. The second concerns the objection that causal theory is unable to provide essential epistemological concepts and criteria that are necessary for the analysis of cognition. The author supports the charge of the vicious circle and agrees with the purport of the second objection by showing that it can be interpreted as the claim that causal theory is incapable of solving the problem of causal underdetermination of cognition. These responses seem to hold irrespective of whether one adopts foundationalism or anti‑foundationalism in epistemology.

The component of the cause for the emotional state of the person experiencing the emotion is built into the structure of the class of verba sentiendi. Most emotive verbs can be classed as P(x, q) predicates, where q is the position of the propositional argument in which the content qualifying the causal component is expressed. The syntactic characteristics of sentences (conjunctions, prepositions) often do not communicate unequivocally the causal function. This paper demonstrates the existence in languages of contextual syntactic conditions which foster the use of explicit exponents of causality (e.g., Pol. ponieważ / bo // z powodu; Bulg. защото / понеже // поради / заради / по повод), appearing in alteration with the exponents of cohesion typical of the given verb. Also brought to attention is the use in sentence structures of other lexical means serving a similar function, like Pol. wynikający / płynący; Bulg. причинен / предизвикан. In conclusion it is stated that the research which takes into account the semantic structure of the predicate allows for analyzing phenomena that are usually not included in descriptions of case government of verbs.