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Abstract

Cost prediction for construction projects provides important information for project feasibility studies and design scheme selection. To improve the accuracy of early-stage cost estimation for construction projects, an improved neural network prediction model was proposed based on BP (back propagation) neural network and Snake Optimizer algorithm (SO). SO algorithm is adopted to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of the BP neural network. Cost data for 50 construction projects undertaken by Shandong Tianqi Real Estate Group in China was collected, and the data samples were clustered into three categories using cluster analysis. 18 engineering feature indicators were determined through a literature review and 10 feature indicators were selected using Boruta algorithm for the input set. Compared to BP neural network and PSO–BP neural network, the results show that the improved SO–BP model has higher prediction accuracy, stability, better generalization ability and applicability. Therefore, based on reasonable feature indicators, the method proposed in this paper has certain guiding significance for predicting engineering costs.
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Authors and Affiliations

Hao Cui
1
ORCID: ORCID
Junjie Xia
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. College of Civil Engineering, Jiangxi Science and TechnologyNormalUniversity,No. 605 Fenglin Avenue,330013, Nanchang, China
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Abstract

At present, the back-propagation (BP) network algorithm widely used in the short-term output prediction of photovoltaic power stations has the disadvantage of ignoring meteorological factors and weather conditions in the input. The existing traditional BP prediction model lacks a variety of numerical optimization algorithms, such that the prediction error is large. The back-propagation (BP) neural network is easy to fall into local optimization thus reducing the prediction accuracy in photovoltaic power prediction. In order to solve this problem, an improved grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm is proposed to optimize the photovoltaic power prediction model of the BP neural network. So, an improved grey wolf optimization algorithm optimized BP neural network for a photovoltaic (PV) power prediction model is proposed. Dynamic weight strategy, tent mapping and particle swarm optimization (PSO) are introduced in the standard grey wolf optimization (GWO) to construct the PSO–GWO model. The relative error of the PSO–GWO–BP model predicted data is less than that of the BP model predicted data. The average relative error of PSO–GWO–BP and GWO–BP models is smaller, the average relative error of PSO–GWO–BP model is the smallest, and the prediction stability of the PSO–GWO–BP model is the best. The model stability and prediction accuracy of PSO–GWO–BP are better than those of GWO–BP and BP.
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Authors and Affiliations

Ping He
1
ORCID: ORCID
Jie Dong
1
ORCID: ORCID
Xiaopeng Wu
1
ORCID: ORCID
Lei Yun
1
ORCID: ORCID
Hua Yang
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Zhengzhou University of Light Industry, College of Electrical and Information Engineering, China

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