The aim of the research is to conceptualise the methodology of analysing regional development paths. To do so, the model of regional development path transformation was created. The model consists of indicators describing each of the process areas: 1) path dependency; 2) event exposure; 3) adaptation to short-term shocks; 4) long-term adaptability, and 5) region performance. The model also indicates relationships between these indicators and describes the most probable behaviours of the regional economies during the process.