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Abstract

From a management perspective, water quality is determined by the desired end use. Water intended for leisure, drinking water, and the habitat of aquatic organisms requires higher levels of purity. In contrast, the quality standards of water used for hydraulic energy production are much less important.
The main objective of this work is focused on the development of an evaluation system dealing with supervised classification of the physicochemical quality of the water surface in the Moulouya River through the use of artificial intelligence. A graphical interface under Matlab 2015 is presented. The latter makes it possible to create a classification model based on artificial neural networks of the multilayer perceptron type (ANN-MLP).
Several configurations were tested during this study. The configuration [9 8 3] retained gives a coefficient of determination close to the unit with a minimum error value during the test phase.
This study highlights the capacity of the classification model based on artificial neural networks of the multilayer perceptron type (ANN-MLP) proposed for the supervised classification of the different water quality classes, determined by the calculation of the system for assessing the quality of surface water (SEQ-water) at the level of the Moulouya River catchment area, with an overall classification rate equal to 98.5% and a classification rate during the test phase equal to 100%.
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Authors and Affiliations

Imad Manssouri
1
ORCID: ORCID
Abdelghani Talhaoui
2
Abdellah El Hmaidi
2
ORCID: ORCID
Brahim Boudad
3
Bouchra Boudebbouz
1
Hassane Sahbi
4

  1. Moulay Ismail University, National School of Arts and Crafts, Laboratory of Mechanics, Mechatronics, and Command, Team of Electrical Energy, Maintenance and Innovation, Meknes, Marjane 2, BP: 298 Meknes 50050, Morocco
  2. Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of Sciences, Water Sciences and Environmental Engineering team, Meknes, Morocco
  3. Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geology, Laboratory of Geo-Engineering and Environment, Meknes, Morocco
  4. Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop mathematical models based on artificial intelligence: Models based on the support vectors regression (SVR) for drought forecast in the Ansegmir watershed (Upper Moulouya, Morocco). This study focuses on the prediction of the temporal aspect of the two drought indices (standardized precipitation index – SPI and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index – SPEI) using six hydro-climatic variables relating to the period 1979–2013. The model SVR3-SPI: RBF, ε = 0.004, C = 20 and γ = 1.7 for the index SPI, and the model SVR3-SPEI: RBF ε = 0.004, C = 40 and γ = 0.167 for the SPEI index are significantly better in comparison to other models SVR1, SVR2 and SVR4. The SVR model for the SPI index gave a correlation coefficient of R = 0.92, MSE = 0.17 and MAE = 0.329 for the learning phase and R = 0.90, MSE = 0.18 and MAE = 0.313 for the testing phase. As for the SPEI index, the overlay is slightly poorer only in the case of the SPI index between the observed values and the predicted ones by the SVR model. It shows a very small gap between the observed and predicted values. The correlation coefficients R = 0.88 for the learning, R = 0.86 for testing remain higher and corresponding to a quadratic error average MSE = 0.21 and MAE = 0.351 for the learning and MSE = 0.21 and MAE = 0.350 for the testing phase. The prediction of drought by SVR model remain useful and would be extremely important for drought risk management.
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Authors and Affiliations

My Hachem Bekri
1
ORCID: ORCID
Abdellah El Hmaidi
1
ORCID: ORCID
Habiba Ousmana
1
ORCID: ORCID
El Mati El Faleh
1
ORCID: ORCID
Mohamed Berrada
1
ORCID: ORCID
Kamal El Aissaoui
1
ORCID: ORCID
Ali Essahlaoui
1
ORCID: ORCID
Abdelhadi El Ouali
1
ORCID: ORCID

  1. Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of Sciences, B.P. 11201, Zitoune, 50070, Meknes, Morocco

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