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Number of results: 9
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Abstract

This paper researches the application of grey system theory in cost forecasting of the coal mine. The grey model (GM(1.1)) is widely used in forecasting in business and industrial systems with advantages of minimal data, a short time and little fluctuation. Also, the model fits exponentially with increasing data more precisely than other prediction techniques. However, the traditional GM(1.1) model suffers from the poor anti-interference ability. Aimed at the flaws of the conventional GM(1.1) model, this paper proposes a novel dynamic forecasting model with the theory of background value optimization and Fourier-series residual error correction based on the traditional GM(1.1) model. The new model applies the golden segmentation optimization method to optimize the background value and Fourier-series theory to extract periodic information in the grey forecasting model for correcting the residual error. In the proposed dynamic model, the newest data is gradually added while the oldest is removed from the original data sequence. To test the new model’s forecasting performance, it was applied to the prediction of unit costs in coal mining, and the results show that the prediction accuracy is improved compared with other grey forecasting models. The new model gives a MAPE & C value of 0.14% and 0.02, respectively, compared to 1.75% and 0.37 respectively for the traditional GM(1.1) model. Thus, the new GM(1.1) model proposed in this paper, with advantages of practical application and high accuracy, provides a new method for cost forecasting in coal mining, and then help decision makers to make more scientific decisions for the mining operation.
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Abstract

The paper discusses some of the recent advances in kriging based worst-case design optimisation and proposes a new two-stage approach to solve practical problems. The efficiency of the infill points allocation is improved significantly by adding an extra layer of optimisation enhanced by a validation process.
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Abstract

The main work of this paper focuses on the simulation of binary alloy solidification using the phase field model and adaptive octree grids. Ni-Cu binary alloy is used as an example in this paper to do research on the numerical simulation of isothermal solidification of binary alloy. Firstly, the WBM model, numerical issues and adaptive octree grids have been explained. Secondary, the numerical simulation results of three dimensional morphology of the equiaxed grain and concentration variations are given, taking the efficiency advantage of the adaptive octree grids. The microsegregation of binary alloy has been analysed emphatically. Then, numerical simulation results of the influence of thermo-physical parameters on the growth of the equiaxed grain are also given. At last, a simulation experiment of large scale and long-time has been carried out. It is found that increases of initial temperature and initial concentration will make grain grow along certain directions and adaptive octree grids can effectively be used in simulations of microstructure.
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Abstract

In order to compare the pathogenicity of different Tembusu virus (TMUV) strains from geese, ducks and chickens, 56 5-day-old Cherry Valley ducklings which were divided into 7 groups and infected intramuscularly with 7´105 PFU/ml per duck of six challenge virus stocks. The clinical signs, weight gain, mortality, macroscopic and microscopic lesions, virus loads in sera of 1, 3, 5, 7, 11 and 14 dpi and serum antibody titers were examined. The results showed that these viruses could make the young ducks sick, but the clinical signs differed with the different species-original strains. All the experimental groups lose markedly in weight gain compared to the control, but there were no obvious distinctions in weight gains, as well as macroscopic and microscopic lesions of dead ducks between the infected groups. However, the groups of waterfowl-derived strains (from geese and ducks) showed more serious clinical signs and higher relative expressions of virus loads in sera than those from chicken-derived. The mortality of waterfowl groups was 37.5%, and the greatest mortality of chicken groups was 12.5%. The serum antibodies of the geese-species group JS804 appeared earlier and were higher in the titers than others. Taken toghter, the pathogenicity of waterfowl-derived TMUV was more serious than chicken-derived TMUV and JS804 could be chosen as one TMUV vaccine strain to protect from the infection.
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